How We Measure Nigerian Reality
This page explains how Naija Reality collects responses, verifies participation, calculates scores, protects against manipulation, and generates public insights. Every score, verdict, ranking, and insight on the platform is produced using a published methodology that anyone can inspect, challenge, and verify.
Important: Naija Reality reflects the experiences and opinions of participating Nigerians. Results are participation-based, not election polls and not official government statistics. All scores, verdicts, sample sizes, and participation counts are publicly displayed, and the methodology used to calculate them is published to promote transparency and accountability.
Current Administration Reality Index (NRI)
What does the NRI measure?
The Current Administration Reality Index (NRI) is Naija Reality's flagship civic intelligence metric. It converts verified, aggregation-eligible Reality Check responses into a single score that reflects how participating Nigerians assess lived experience under the current administration. Updated continuously as new responses are verified, the NRI provides a transparent, citizen-generated benchmark of national reality.
Formula
Category_Score = Σ(response_scores) / n
Each category score is calculated from eligible responses within that category using the Better/Same/Worse scoring model.
Formula
NRI = Σ(category_score_i × category_weight_i) / Σ(category_weight_i)
The NRI is calculated as a weighted average of the nine category scores using the published category weights.
Category Weights
| Category | Category Weight | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Economy | 1.20 | Broadest impact on household wellbeing, purchasing power, and overall quality of life. |
| Security | 1.20 | Direct impact on personal safety, freedom of movement, and community stability. |
| Employment & Standard of Living | 1.15 | Reflects jobs, income security, affordability, and daily living conditions. |
| Electricity & Infrastructure | 1.10 | Captures power reliability, transport, roads, and public infrastructure performance. |
| Social Wellbeing | 1.10 | Measures stress, hopefulness, quality of life, and overall societal wellbeing. |
| Healthcare | 1.05 | Reflects access, affordability, quality, and reliability of healthcare services. |
| National Economy | 1.05 | Reflects inflation, exchange rates, economic confidence, debt sustainability, and national economic direction. |
| Education | 1.00 | Measures educational access, quality, learning outcomes, and opportunity creation. |
| Youth & Digital Economy | 1.00 | Reflects youth opportunity, entrepreneurship, innovation, digital access, and future-readiness. |
Category weights are published for transparency and may be reviewed as the platform evolves. Any methodology changes will be documented publicly.
NRI Verdict Thresholds
66 – 100
Above Baseline
Citizen sentiment is generally positive.
45 – 65
Mixed Reality
Experiences are mixed across categories.
0 – 44
Below Baseline
Citizen sentiment is generally negative.
Why the NRI matters
The NRI converts many individual experiences into one public benchmark that can be tracked over time.
Rather than relying only on political messaging, official statistics, or media narratives, the NRI provides a citizen-generated measure of how Nigerians experience life under the current administration.
The NRI is designed to serve as a public accountability tool and a long-term historical record of Nigerian lived experience.
NRI Trend Tracking
Trend tracking will show how the NRI changes over time as more verified responses are submitted. Future releases will help citizens track whether lived experience is improving, stable, or declining nationally, by state, and across individual categories.
Reality Check Methodology
The Three-Point Score Scale
The participant reports improvement compared with the previous period.
The participant reports no significant change compared with the previous period.
The participant reports deterioration compared with the previous period.
Naija Reality uses a 25/50/75 scoring model because 50 represents the baseline of “no meaningful change.” Scores below 50 indicate a net negative lived experience, while scores above 50 indicate a net positive lived experience.
From Answers to Public Scores
Formula
Participant Score = weighted average of category scores
Each participant's Reality Check score is calculated from the nine category scores using the published category weights.
Formula
Public Score = average of verified, aggregation-eligible participant scores
National, state, and category aggregates are produced only from responses that meet verification and eligibility standards.
This structure allows citizens to see both their own Reality Check result and how their experience contributes to wider national and state-level civic intelligence.
Poll Methodology
How Poll Results Will Be Calculated
Public Opinion Polls are a planned module of the Naija Reality Civic Intelligence Platform. When launched, polls will allow Nigerians to participate in anonymous, non-partisan questions on governance, policy, elections, and national issues.
Poll results will show the percentage of verified responses for each option. The basic formula will be: Option % = (option_votes / total_verified_votes) × 100
Polls will be clearly labeled as participation-based public opinion data, not scientific probability surveys or election forecasts.
Planned Poll Quality Standards
Question neutrality
Poll questions will be reviewed to reduce leading language, loaded framing, and false choices.
Option balance
Response options will be designed to reflect realistic ranges of public opinion.
Context disclosure
Polls will include context explaining what is being asked and why it matters.
One-response protection
Safeguards will be used to reduce duplicate or coordinated responses.
Scope transparency
Each poll will state whether it is national, state-specific, diaspora-specific, or issue-specific.
Archive policy
Closed polls will remain accessible as part of the public civic record.
Manifesto Library Methodology
Purpose
The Manifesto Library is designed to preserve candidate commitments in a structured, searchable format so campaign promises can later become public accountability records.
Verification Approach
Submitted manifestos will be reviewed for source authenticity, candidate attribution, completeness, and compliance with neutrality and safety standards before publication.
Equal Treatment
Naija Reality does not endorse candidates or political parties. Manifestos will be organized using transparent rules and will not receive preferential placement based on party, ideology, payment, or political influence.
Public Record
Published manifestos are intended to remain part of the public civic record. They may later support promise tracking, policy comparison, and long-term accountability analysis.
Promise Tracking Methodology
Promise Status Classifications
Delivered
Evidence indicates the promised outcome has been achieved.
In Progress
Documented work is underway, but the promise has not yet been fully delivered.
Partially Delivered
Some parts of the promise have been fulfilled, but not the full commitment.
Not Started
No reliable public evidence currently shows meaningful action toward the promise.
Broken
Available evidence shows the promise has been abandoned, contradicted, or made impossible to fulfill.
Needs Verification
Evidence is incomplete, conflicting, or still under review.
Evidence Standard: Promise tracking will rely on public evidence such as official releases, budget documents, project records, audit reports, legislative records, credible reporting, and verified public documentation.
Citizen Contributions: Citizens may submit evidence or flag discrepancies. Accepted submissions will be reviewed before being used in public classification.
Accountability Purpose: The Promise Tracker is designed to turn campaign commitments into a long-term public record that can be monitored after elections.
Trust Score & Aggregation Eligibility
Naija Reality uses verification and quality safeguards to determine which submissions are eligible for public aggregation. Verified, aggregation-eligible responses contribute to national scores, state scores, category scores, and public insights.
Formula
Public aggregates = verified + aggregation-eligible responses
The goal is to include genuine citizen participation while reducing duplicate, automated, coordinated, or low-quality submissions.
Verification status
Verified submissions carry higher confidence than unverified activity.
Completion quality
Unusually fast or incomplete activity may reduce aggregation eligibility.
Duplicate detection
Repeated or suspicious participation patterns can be excluded from public aggregates.
Pattern review
Highly unusual response patterns may be flagged for review.
Administrative moderation
Suspicious batches can be reviewed before being included in public-facing results.
Transparency
Public scores are presented with participation counts so users can interpret results responsibly.
Anti-Manipulation Safeguards
Verification
Verification helps separate eligible public responses from low-confidence or suspicious activity.
Duplicate Reduction
The platform applies safeguards to reduce repeated submissions and coordinated activity.
Response Pattern Review
Unusual response sequences, suspicious timing, or abnormal activity patterns can be flagged.
Aggregation Eligibility
Only responses that meet eligibility standards are included in public scores and rankings.
Admin Review
Suspicious submissions or batches can be reviewed by administrators before public inclusion.
Transparent Reporting
Public data is shown with participation counts and methodology notes so results can be interpreted responsibly.
Governance Scorecard Methodology
Governance Scorecards are a future module of the Naija Reality Civic Intelligence Platform. The goal is to combine promise tracking, citizen-reported sentiment, public evidence, and transparency indicators into structured accountability scorecards for public office holders.
Formula
Governance Scorecard = Promise Delivery + Citizen Sentiment + Evidence Quality + Transparency
The final scorecard model will be published before the module becomes publicly active.
Promise Delivery
Tracks whether public commitments were delivered, partially delivered, in progress, not started, or broken.
Citizen Sentiment
Uses Reality Check and poll data where relevant to reflect lived experience under a leader's area of responsibility.
Evidence Quality
Evaluates the credibility, completeness, and verifiability of evidence used to support classifications.
Transparency
Reviews public disclosure, access to information, and the availability of records citizens can inspect.
Data Limitations
Participation-driven data
Naija Reality reflects the experiences and opinions of Nigerians who choose to participate. Results should be interpreted as a transparent measure of participant sentiment rather than a scientific national census or probability survey.
Digital access and participation gaps
Participation requires access to the internet and awareness of the platform. As a result, some populations may be underrepresented. Expanding geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic participation remains an ongoing objective.
State-level reliability
State-level scores should be interpreted alongside participation levels. States with larger numbers of verified responses generally provide more stable and reliable indicators than states with limited participation.
Demographic representation
Participation levels may vary across age groups, occupations, regions, and other demographic segments. Results are presented transparently so users can evaluate participation patterns alongside reported outcomes.
Diaspora and local perspectives
Diaspora responses are analyzed separately from in-country responses when appropriate. This allows comparisons between domestic and diaspora experiences while preserving the integrity of state-level analysis.
Methodology transparency
Naija Reality publishes its scoring methodology, category weights, trust safeguards, and aggregation rules openly so that citizens, researchers, journalists, and policymakers can understand how every result is produced.
Data Correction Policy
If an error is discovered in methodology, calculations, rankings, published insights, or platform data presentation, Naija Reality will correct the issue and maintain a visible correction record where appropriate.
Corrections will explain what changed, why it changed, and whether the change affected any public-facing scores, rankings, or interpretations.
Methodology changes that materially affect public scores will be documented publicly so users can understand how results are produced over time.
To report an inaccuracy: corrections@naijareality.org